ISLAMABAD: The moment Minister for Defence Khawaja Muhammad Asif made a brief statement in the joint session of both the houses of Parliament on Yemen conflict, and informed the House what Saudi Arab had asked from Pakistan in the form of military assistance, it was never an easy option to say, “No” yet, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took the democratic path and got the unanimous backing for diplomatic initiatives rather than sending troops. But, it seems it is not acceptable to the friends. So, what can prime minister do now?
It is certainly not an easy decision and should not be taken in haste and has to be taken keeping all pros and cons in consideration above all the national and strategy interests. There is always a price to be paid on such major and difficult decisions. It is also a test for the diplomacy particularly in this case, where a trusted friend is involved. Thus, all eyes are resting on the prime minister.
When Khawaja Asif made an opening statement and initiated the debate, he made it clear that these demands were made to Pakistan during a visit of Pakistani delegation and military leadership was part of the Pak team.
Saudi Arabia clearly wants Pakistan’s role in the Yemen conflict through military assistance in the form of ground troops, aircraft, naval vessels etc. It appears that not much success was achieved on the diplomatic front despite the efforts made by Pakistan and Turkey. The visit of the Turkish president to Iran and the visit of Iranian foreign minister to Pakistan also remained inconclusive.
The strongly-worded statement of the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs is not only critical to Pakistan’s position but also to the stance taken by Turkey.
Saudi Arabia is not looking for any mediation and also not asking for any diplomatic efforts. Its position is clear as they want that the elements, which are fighting against the elected government of Yemen, should first lay down arms and Iranian interference should stop.
Thus, Saudi Arabia does not want that Pakistan should remain ‘neutral’ rather they are looking for its more leading and proactive role. On the other hand, the Pakistani Parliament has given a mandate to the government to defend Saudi Arabia, if its territorial boundaries come under attack instead of sending troops to take part in the military operation inside Yemen.
It is not sure whether Pakistan would once again be given the option to choose between carrot and stick but the statements coming from some of the Arab leaders, days after the joint resolution of Parliament, has put Pakistan’s civil and military leadership in a difficult situation.
If Pakistan chooses carrot, it will get massive financial assistance which even otherwise Saudi Arabia always gives beside other requirements and in case of going for stick, it can be tough and if it comes from the Arab League, it could even become harder for Pakistan whose economy is already unstable. Besides, the future of 25 to 40 million Pakistanis working in SA and a large number of Pakistanis working in other Arab League countries including UAE would be put at stake.
Irrespective of the outcome, the reaction of the Minister for Interior Ch Nisar Ali Khan over the statement of UAE minister was really tough whether it had gone well in the diplomatic circles or not. The Saudi response was well guarded, though they too looked disappointed.
The next a few days are important as a high-level Saudi delegation led by its Minister for Religious Affairs held talks with the Pakistani leaders in what appears to be another bid to pursue Pakistan’s civil and military leadership to back Saudi position on Yemen.
But Ch Nisar Ali Khan’s outburst against the UAE Minister Dr Anwer Mohammad Gargresh made the situation more complicated. The UAE minister had almost threatened Pakistan of dire consequences. It reminded of the threat given by former US Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger to late prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto of making him a horrible example.
But as a powerful leader, he refused US demand that Pakistan should abandon its nuclear programme. He was given choice to pick between, ‘carrot and stick.’
Nisar’s statement may have reflected the populist sentiments but if it was the right time considering the Saudi Arabia’s repeated request that Pakistan should join the allied forces of the 10 Arab League.
Saudi position is now very clear and in many words, they had rejected the parliamentary resolution, though officially they said, “It’s the internal matter of Pakistan.”
What is the choice before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and COAS General Raheel Sharif? Why is there more pressure on Pakistan than on Turkey from Saudi Arab? What will Turkey do in case pressure is increased on Pakistan and Nawaz Sharif left with no choice but to give limited military assistance to Arab League?
Pakistan also has to keep in mind that even some other Arab countries have also taken a “neutral” position. Secondly, Pakistan’s army is already engaged on Western border and despite no recent reports of violation from India on the Eastern border, situation can aggravate after the release of Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of Mumbai attack in which 160 people were killed.
But Pakistan cannot categorically say, ‘No’ to Saudi Arabia. After all, they are demanding military assistance to deal with non-state actors. So, can Pakistan go for limited assistance?
It appears that the prime minister has already taken the Turkish president into confidence about the changing diplomatic scenario and is likely to take a decision in the light of the Turkish position.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and COAS General Raheel Sharif would either go to Saudi Arabia or at least premier will talk to Saudi king and assure him of full backing without going into more details about the kind of support S Arabia requires.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif still has the backing of both his ruling coalition as well as main opposition parties which have supported the parliamentary resolution in the assembly. However, JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman is now reluctant.
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) is very clear that the mediation is the only solution and has backed the joint resolution.
“War in the desert is more dangerous than war on the mountains. Thus, we should not enter this war but try to resolve the conflict through mediation,” JI chief Sirajul Haq said.
There is a general consensus in the country that the present conflict in Yemen has nothing to do with any sectarian uprising or revolt.
Therefore, it’s time for the prime minister that in case of any change of mind or a review is required, he should take leaders of mainstream parties into confidence and then take the final decision.
It’s a rare situation for prime minister that he and main opposition leader Imran Khan are on the same page. It’s time to take decision keeping all the aspects in mind including our strategic interests, friendly ties with our Arab friends as well as neighbours.
If sending troops is in Pakistan’s interest, we should send them and prime minister should take Parliament into confidence. But, if not, Pakistanis are ready to pay the price. When we decided to make a nuclear bomb for deterrence, we had rejected the US pressure, lost one leader and faced sanctions.
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